Antarctic offshore winds play a crucial role in coastal polynya activity, sea ice production, Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) formation, and further in the global climate system. Using ERA5 reanalysis and 26 CMIP6 models, this study evaluates the ability of models to reproduce near-surface wind speed, offshore wind speed, and the associated strong (offshore) wind events (SWEs and SOWEs) across Antarctica and four key polynya regions, and projects their future changes under four shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5).The results show that the climatological near-surface wind field is marked by stronger winds in East Antarctica and weaker winds in the west, with prevailing coastal offshore winds. Most models capture this spatial structure reasonably well, with better performance in East Antarctica than in the west. Based on a comprehensive ranking, eight top-performing models (EC-Earth3, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, CNRM-CM6-1, IPSL-CM6A-LR, KACE-1-0-G, UKESM1-0-LL, GFDL-ESM2, and ACCESS-CM2) are selected to use for future projections. Across all scenarios, wind speeds are projected to strengthen in the Amundsen Sea while weakening in parts of East and West Antarctica, with the magnitude of these changes strengthening under higher-emission pathways. The frequency of SWEs and SOWEs increases in all regions, with larger rises under high-emission scenarios. However, the growth in SOWEs is more modest and less sensitive to SSP forcing than that of SWEs.
 

Antarctic,near-surface wind speed,projection,CMIP6,evaluation