Seasonal-Varying Predictability of Global Heat Extremes from Oceanic Precursors: A Complex Network Analysis
编号:29 访问权限:仅限参会人 更新:2025-11-12 14:21:54 浏览:53次 口头报告

报告开始:暂无开始时间(Asia/Shanghai)

报告时间:暂无持续时间

所在会场:[暂无会议] [暂无会议段]

暂无文件

摘要
While sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) are known drivers of terrestrial heat extremes, a unified quantitative understanding of the SSTAs’ impacts across seasons, ocean basins, and lead times remains lacking. Here, we apply a complex network framework to systematically investigate the linkage between extreme terrestrial temperature and SSTAs at a global scale and over four seasons. Based on this data-driven framework, the signal propagation from tropical Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Ocean to terrestrial regions could be assessed quantitatively. Short-lagged influences are observed in the tropical Indian Ocean, while longer-lagged modulations persisting for up to 6 months are observed in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic. Notably, robust teleconnections are detectable over 90% of the land areas even at 12-month lead times, exposing a substantial source of long-term predictability that are overlooked by traditional statistical analysis. Furthermore, multiple climate models demonstrate skillful simulation of these lag-dependent teleconnections, with a clear inter-model relationship showing that greater interannual SSTA variability corresponds to stronger modulations on extreme terrestrial high temperature. This network-based framework provides a novel approach for elucidating ocean-to-land modulations, which deepen our knowledge of the predictability of the climate system.
关键词
Complex Network, Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies, Extreme Terrestrial Heat
报告人
Huayan Qiu
Student Sun Yat-sen University

稿件作者
Huayan Qiu Sun Yat-sen University
Tuantuan Zhang School of Atmospheric Sciences; Sun Yat-sen University
Fenying Cai Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
发表评论
验证码 看不清楚,更换一张
全部评论
重要日期
  • 会议日期

    11月20日

    2025

    11月24日

    2025

  • 11月10日 2025

    初稿截稿日期

  • 11月24日 2025

    注册截止日期

主办单位
太平洋科学协会
承办单位
Shantou University
Xiamen University
联系方式
移动端
在手机上打开
小程序
打开微信小程序
客服
扫码或点此咨询