The Critical Combined Effects of Intraseasonal Oscillations and Tropical Equatorial Rossby Waves on the Tropical Cyclone Genesis Over Bay of Bengal During May
编号:1636 访问权限:仅限参会人 更新:2026-09-05 11:28:47 浏览:20次 张贴报告

报告开始:2027年01月12日 08:15(Asia/Shanghai)

报告时间:15min

所在会场:[S42] Session 42 - Indian Ocean Under Stress: Dynamics, Biogeochemistry, and Productivity Shifts During Extreme Events [S42P] S42-Poster

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摘要
Tropical cyclone genesis (TCG) over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) in May can lead to severe meteorological hazards, underscoring the need to identify physical mechanisms with early‐warning potentials. This study quantifies over 90% of TCG events are influenced by northward‐propagating intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs), which transports enhanced low‐level vorticity, reduced vertical wind shear, mid‐level moisture and warm sea surface temperature from the equator to BoB. Most TCG events occur within 20 days after the equatorial intraseasonal convections, highlighting the latter as one early‐warning indicator. Diagnostics reveal the biweekly westward‐propagating equatorial Rossby (ER) waves help channel energy from the intraseasonal envelope into developing tropical disturbances for 86% cyclogenesis. These westward Rossby waves appear over Indochina‐South China Sea 5–10 days before TCG, also serving as a potential TCG indicator. By identifying the synergistic impact of ISOs and ER waves, this study offers scientific guidance for improving subseasonal prediction in this high‐risk region.
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报告人
Ze Meng
Shanghai Jiao Tong University

稿件作者
Ze Meng Shanghai Jiao Tong University
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重要日期
  • 会议日期

    01月12日

    2027

    01月15日

    2027

  • 07月21日 2026

    初稿截稿日期

  • 01月15日 2027

    注册截止日期

主办单位
State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science, Xiamen University (MEL)
Department of Earth Sciences, National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)
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