Sharp Increase in rapid intensification of Arabian Sea tropical cyclones over the past decade
编号:678 访问权限:仅限参会人 更新:2026-08-31 18:15:28 浏览:2次 口头报告

报告开始:2027年01月14日 14:15(Asia/Shanghai)

报告时间:15min

所在会场:[S42] Session 42 - Indian Ocean Under Stress: Dynamics, Biogeochemistry, and Productivity Shifts During Extreme Events [S42-1] Indian Ocean Under Stress: Dynamics, Biogeochemistry, and Productivity Shifts During Extreme Events

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摘要
The Arabian Sea has experienced a sharp increase in extremely severe tropical cyclones over the past decade, yet the drivers behind this trend remain unclear. Here we examined rapid intensification - a critical process enhancing tropical cyclone intensity - using multi-source observations and reanalysis  data. We find that both the frequency of rapid intensification events and number of tropical cyclones undergoing them have doubled since 2013,  accompanied by southwestward and northward expansion of rapid intensification-prone regions. Machine learning analysis identifies rising sea surface  temperatures and enhanced 850 hPa vorticity as key factors behind this surge. Future projections indicate further increases in these factors, suggesting  more frequent rapid intensification events and consequent heightened cyclone risks in this region. These findings highlight the critical role of large-scale  oceanic and atmospheric changes in shaping tropical cyclone behavior and emphasize the urgent need for targeted adaptation trategies.
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报告人
Xiaojing Li
研究员 Second Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources

稿件作者
Xiaojing Li Second Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources
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重要日期
  • 会议日期

    01月12日

    2027

    01月15日

    2027

  • 07月21日 2026

    初稿截稿日期

  • 01月15日 2027

    注册截止日期

主办单位
State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science, Xiamen University (MEL)
Department of Earth Sciences, National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)
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