Reliability-informed event-updated landslide risk assessment under extreme rainfall
编号:118 访问权限:仅限参会人 更新:2026-07-30 17:24:22 浏览:7次 特邀报告

报告开始:2026年08月10日 17:30(Asia/Hong_Kong)

报告时间:15min

所在会场:[S1] Session 1 Seismic Assessment and Design for Resilient Slopes [S1] Session 1 Day 2

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摘要
This study proposes a reliability-aware framework for event-updated landslide risk assessment under extreme rainfall conditions. The prior landslide susceptibility (S0) model was developed by the machine learning method using static conditioning factors. Then, the multi-duration rainfall threshold exceedance index and rainfall-environment coupling factors were established to update the static susceptibility into event-based hazard (Se) by a Bayesian-inspired logit updated model. Bootstrap uncertainty analysis was adopted to evaluate the uncertainty propagation and reliability of updated hazard zones. The reliability-weighted landslide risk zones were finally determined by integrating exposure and vulnerability indicators, supporting post-event priority mapping and emergency risk management. A constrained large language model (LLM) prompt was designed to quickly generate the risk report based on input contributions. The results of a case study in Meizhou show that the proposed framework improved the AUC values from 0.744 (S0) to 0.967 (Semean) and achieved a success-rate AUC of 0.961 with all historical landslides captured in the top 20% highest-hazard area. Leave-one-out cross-validation, ablation studies, and sensitivity analysis were conducted to validate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed model.

 
关键词
Landslide risk assessment,Eextreme rainfall,event-updated hazard,reliability-informed analysis,interpretable machine learning
报告人
Tao YAN
The Hong Kong Polytechnic University

稿件作者
Tao Yan The Hong Kong Polytechnic University
Shui-Long Shen Shantou University
Zhenyu Yin The Hong Kong Polytechnic University
Ning Zhang The Hong Kong Polytechnic University
Dong-Bin Yin Shantou University
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重要日期
  • 会议日期

    08月09日

    2026

    08月13日

    2026

  • 08月09日 2026

    初稿截稿日期

  • 08月12日 2026

    注册截止日期

主办单位
International Consortium on Geo-disaster Reduction (ICGdR)
UNESCO Chair on Geoenvironmental Disaster Reduction
承办单位
The Hong Kong Polytechnic University
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