报告详情
Helio Sentinel: A Deterministic Five-State Nowcasting Engine for Real-Time Solar Flare Warning from Single-Channel Aditya-L1 Soft X-ray Data
编号：102
访问权限：仅限参会人
更新：2026-11-10 16:46:10 浏览：11次
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报告开始：2026年11月20日 17:00（Asia/Kolkata）
报告时间：15min
所在会场：[S3] Satellite UAV and Non-Terrestrial Networks/Networking, Security and Blockchain Systems [S3-1] Satellite UAV and Non-Terrestrial Networks/Networking, Security and Blockchain Systems
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摘要
Solar flares can quickly impact the ionosphere of the Earth and disrupt communication and satellite systems, meaning that reliable real-time monitoring and early warning are required. In this work, we introduce Helio Sentinel, a five-state deterministic nowcasting engine for real-time warning of solar flares based on the single-channel soft X-ray observations from the SoLEXS instrument onboard Aditya-L1. The proposed system processes causal, trailing-window features and classifies solar activity into five operational states: Quiet, Watch, Unstable, Pre-Eruption and Critical. Compared to conventional machine-learning forecasting approaches, Helio Sentinel does not require training data and is based on interpretable thresholds of background-normalized flux, statistical significance, enhancement and rise rate. The system was evaluated using 246 days of SoLEXS data containing 21.25 million samples against an independent GOES/HEK catalogue, achieving a detection rate of 89.3% for X-class, 65.8% for M-class and 32.5% for C-class flares with the false-alarm rate of 0.272 events/day. The median warning time before the peak for the X-class flares was 13.7 minutes with the proposed approach. The results show that a single channel, deterministic and interpretable nowcasting system can provide useful real-time flare alerts without relying on complex imaging data or trained predictive models. Thus, Helio Sentinel can complement existing flare forecasting and binary detection systems with a graded operational assessment of developing solar activity.
关键词
solar flares, nowcasting, early warning, soft X-ray, Aditya-L1, event detection
报告人
Harshil Patel
NA LDRP Institute of technology and Research稿件作者
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重要日期
-
会议日期
11月20日
2026
至11月22日
2026
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10月31日 2026
初稿截稿日期
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11月07日 2026
提前注册日期
-
11月22日 2026
注册截止日期
主办单位
United Societies of Science
承办单位
Pondicherry University
协办单位
IEEE Section
IEEE Madras Section
IEEE Madras Section
联系方式
- ICon INDIA 2026
- ic******@usssociety.org
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