AI Public Transport Predictor: A Multimodal Spatio Temporal Framework for Real-Time Bus Delay and Crowding Prediction
编号:146 访问权限:仅限参会人 更新:2026-11-10 16:55:35 浏览:9次 Online

报告开始:2026年11月20日 15:30(Asia/Kolkata)

报告时间:15min

所在会场:[S5] Data Science and Intelligent Analytics [S5-1] Data Science and Intelligent Analytics

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摘要
Intelligent transportation systems (ITS) for public transit have largely been built around schedule planning, with delay and crowding prediction treated as secondary. This paper introduces the AI Public Transport Predictor, a multimodal spatio-temporal framework that jointly forecasts bus arrival delay and the number of waiting and on-board passengers. The model fuses static schedule data (GTFS), real-time vehicle feeds (GTFS-Realtime/AVL), automatic passenger counts, weather, and event information, routing each modality through a modality-specific feature pipeline into a shared fusion layer, and then into dual prediction heads for delay and crowding linked by a learned coupling term. Concept drift is handled online by a Page-Hinkley change-point monitor. On a six month GTFS/GTFS-Realtime case study, the coupled model attains a delay MAE of 1.8 ± 0.2 min and a crowd MAE of 12.3 ± 1.1 passengers, a 15–20% improvement over reproduced ArrivalNet and DeepTTE baselines and over single-task variants, with a CRPS of 2.6 against 3.4 for an LSTM baseline. The online-learning variant limits the error spike caused by an abrupt demand shift from roughly one month to approximately two hours. We also describe a deployment architecture that sustains about 2000 cached predictions per second at 50 ms latency, together with its security, privacy, and validation considerations
 
关键词
Index Terms—bus delay prediction, passenger crowding, graph neural networks, spatio-temporal forecasting, multimodal data fusion, explainable AI, intelligent transportation systems.
报告人
Adithya M
Student ST.JOSEPH'S COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING

稿件作者
Adithya M ST.JOSEPH'S COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING
Jervin Raj ST.JOSEPH'S COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING
Nithya M ST.JOSEPH'S COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING
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重要日期
  • 会议日期

    11月20日

    2026

    至

    11月22日

    2026

  • 10月31日 2026

    初稿截稿日期

  • 11月07日 2026

    提前注册日期

  • 11月22日 2026

    注册截止日期

主办单位
United Societies of Science
承办单位
Pondicherry University
协办单位
IEEE Section
IEEE Madras Section
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