Target-Wise Adaptive Multi-Model Ensemble with Calibrated Uncertainty for Bill of Quantities Estimation in Indian Residential Construction
编号:191 访问权限:仅限参会人 更新:2026-11-10 17:06:11 浏览:11次 Online

报告开始:2026年11月21日 11:45(Asia/Kolkata)

报告时间:15min

所在会场:[S4] Artificial Intelligence and Intelligent Computing [S4-6] Artificial Intelligence and Intelligent Computing

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摘要
Accurate Bill of Quantities (BOQ) estimation requires predicting multiple construction quantities whose relationships can differ across materials, fixtures, plumbing components, and labor. This paper proposes a target-wise adaptive multi-model ensemble for fourteen-target BOQ regression. Instead of selecting a single globally strongest model, eight heterogeneous regressors—Ridge, Random Forest, MLP, XGBoost, LightGBM, CatBoost, FT-Transformer, and Cross-Target Dependency Network (CTDN)—are trained and combined through target-specific non-negative weights constrained to sum to one. The weights are learned from a validation subset using inverse-validation-MSE initialization followed by constrained Sequential Least SQuares Programming (SLSQP) optimization, while a separate validation subset is reserved for conformal calibration and the test set remains untouched until final evaluation. On the held-out test set, the proposed ensemble achieves an average R² of 0.9190, compared with 0.9188 for CTDN, 0.9188 for the existing XGBoost–FT-Transformer weighted ensemble, and 0.9185 for simple averaging. The learned weight matrix remains distributed across multiple models, with an average of 4.36 active models per target, a mean maximum weight of 0.4345, and mean normalized entropy of 0.6592, supporting target-specific model complementarity rather than single-model selection. Split conformal prediction applied to the adaptive ensemble achieves 94.83% empirical coverage at a 95% nominal level. The results support target-wise adaptive aggregation as a methodological approach for multi-target BOQ estimation while providing calibrated prediction intervals.
关键词
Adaptive Ensemble, Multi-Target Regression, Bill of Quantities, Construction Cost Estimation, Machine Learning, SLSQP, Conformal Prediction, Uncertainty Quantification
报告人
Thirupathi S
Student Karunya Institute of Technology and Sciences

稿件作者
Thirupathi S Karunya Institute of Technology and Sciences
Dr. E. Grace Mary Kanaga Karunya Institute of Technology and Sciences
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重要日期
  • 会议日期

    11月20日

    2026

    至

    11月22日

    2026

  • 10月31日 2026

    初稿截稿日期

  • 11月07日 2026

    提前注册日期

  • 11月22日 2026

    注册截止日期

主办单位
United Societies of Science
承办单位
Pondicherry University
协办单位
IEEE Section
IEEE Madras Section
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