Groundwater over-exploitation across Karnataka hard-rock aquifers is officially assessed at the taluk level by the Central Ground Water Board, leaving sub-taluk depletion patterns unresolved. We investigate whether multi-sensor satellite observations can recover these classifications while guarding against spatial autocorrelation and data artifacts. Using Google Earth Engine, we compile 10-year pre-monsoon sequences from 2016 to 2025 across 13 spectral, radar, and climate channels. On a strict cohort of 50 taluks, comprising 44 over-exploited and 6 safe, uniform 30-patch sampling removed missingness shortcuts, and negative controls scored near or below chance, between 0.36 and 0.49. Under spatially buffered leave-one-talukout validation, the satellite-augmented model reached an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.705 at 25 km, compared to 0.485 for coordinates plus topography. The paired AUC difference of 0.220 has a 95 percent confidence interval from minus 0.289 to 0.591, so this remains a pilot study. On a broader 54-taluk cohort, regularized logistic regression had the highest AUC (0.843) among classical machine learning, bio-inspired, and deep learning models, though confidence intervals overlap. A prototype map of model-estimated likelihood per sub-taluk block is illustrative only, pending validation against observation wells.
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