Student Academic Risk Prediction Using Random Forest and XGBoost
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更新:2026-11-10 16:16:24 浏览:13次
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摘要
Higher education institutions generate large volumes of academic data; however, these data are often underutilized for proactive decision-making and early identification of at-risk students. This study proposes an intelligent academic records framework that integrates ensemble machine learning within a microservice-based architecture to address this limitation. The methodology combines Random Forest and XGBoost models, leveraging both robustness and predictive capability, while transforming academic records into structured feature vectors using performance-based and progression-based indicators such as GPA, completion ratio, failure rate, and GPA trends. The system is deployed through a Python-based microservice and integrated into a web-based academic platform via RESTful APIs for real-time inference. Experimental results using an 80:20 train–test split with 5-fold cross-validation demonstrate that the ensemble model outperforms individual classifiers, achieving 0.93 accuracy, 0.91 precision, 0.90 recall, 0.90 F1-score, and an AUC of 0.95. These findings confirm that the proposed framework provides a scalable, interpretable, and deployable solution that enhances predictive performance and supports early academic intervention.
关键词
Machine Learning, Random Forest, XGBoost, Academic Analytics, Ensemble Learning, Student Performance Prediction
稿件作者
Joseph Jaymel Morpos
Cebu Institute of Technology
Larmie Feliscuzo
Cebu Institute of Technology
Cheryl Pantaleon
Cebu Institute of Technology
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