Planning EV Charging Stations and Feeder Reinforcement When Future EV Demand Is Uncertain: A Comparison of Deterministic, Stochastic and Robust Plans
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更新:2026-11-10 16:30:25 浏览:9次
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摘要
Electric vehicle (EV) sales are growing quickly, but no one can say how many EVs a given area will have in five years. Charging stations and feeder upgrades, on the other hand, are built once and stay in service for a long time. This paper asks a simple question: how much does a planner lose by sizing stations and feeder upgrades for one demand forecast, and how much does it cost to protect against a wrong forecast? Station siting, the number of charging spots and feeder reinforcement are modelled together as a mixed integer linear program (MILP) on the IEEE 33 bus feeder. Reinforcement adds parallel circuits, which raise the line rating and also lower its impedance, and this effect is linearized exactly. The same model is solved in three ways: deterministic (one forecast), two stage stochastic (five weighted scenarios) and scenario-based min max robust (worst scenario). Each finished plan is then tested on 500 Monte Carlo demand draws that were not used for planning. The value of the stochastic solution is $79,982. In the test, the stochastic plan costs 5.3% more to build than the deterministic plan and has the lowest mean cost. The robust plan costs 27.2% more to build, serves 95.8% of the demand on average and cuts the 95th percentile cost from $6.14 M to $5.20 M. A sensitivity study with ten cases gives the same ranking every time.
关键词
Electric vehicle,EV Charging Stations,Demand Uncertainity,optimal sizing and siting,deterministic plan,stochastic plan
稿件作者
Ritula Thakur
N.I.T.T.T.R. CHANDIGARH
DIKSHA JOSHI
PANJAB UNIVERSITY
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